Sometimes even the most seemingly complex situations can be predicted fairly accurately by those not in charge, yet those predictions are often disregarded by those in charge.
Example:
ObjectiveUnstable country in resource-rich region of the world has a despotic leader who might pose a legitimate threat, as well as harbor others who pose greater threats.
Major drawback
Country will need to be baby-sat for some time thereafter while the country rebuilds after the leadership is removed. Otherwise, other despots might come to power, negating the objective.
Corollaries
- Troops will have to remain in unfamiliar territory for extended periods of time, without any military objectives or cause to show force for protection among a mostly civilian population
- Civilian population fears and hates them, or at least what they represent. Public opinion will be influenced heavily by their actions, as well as propaganda and the actions of others upon them. Fear and hate is likely to grow.
- Homefront civilian opinion is also likely to become divided on several issues surrounding the occupation.
- The occupation will cost a lot of money, which will no doubt impinge upon other foreign as well as domestic programs.
- Many will die.
Example two:
ObjectiveEnter the MMOG market with a familiar concept and an as-yet untried and promising motivational system meant to sustain combat between large armies of player-characters and give them something to fight over.
Major drawback
Careful advance planning by senior management must take every conceivable contigency into account, both in product development before and after release and in business relations.
Corollaries
- Business partners and the money they bring will be range from flaky to completely unreliable.
- Potential customer base will range from the flaky to completely unreliable.
- Potential employees will range from the competent rarity to the indolent to the unqualified to the meddling to the ass-kissing.
- Product's technology will be inadequate.
- Product's design will be inadequate.
- Product's support will be inadequate.
- Employees will be inadequate.
- Senior management will be inadequate.
- Business partners will be inadequate.
- Money will be inadequate.
- Customers will recognize inadequacy faster than they can be placated.
- Employees will recognize inadequacy faster than they can be placated.
- Business partners will recognize inadequacy faster than they can be placated.
- Attempts to placate will aggravate the problem.
- Attempts to fix the problem will aggravate the problem.
- Attempts to play retarded political games with customers, employees and business partners will aggravate the problem.
- Many will quit.
Conclusion: If those in charge considered all the potential danger involved with their objectives, we might not have war. Or Shadowbane.
Posted by j at October 28, 2003 02:05 AM